28 Oct Some markets will take up to 15 years to recover losses – Adrian Haks
In the latest Herron Todd White Month in Review, it is easy to see how far the markets, reliant on resources, have fallen in value. Adrian Haks from HTW says in some areas it will take up to 10 years to claw back the losses. We talk to him about the report and tell you how you can get a copy of it.
Kevin: It’s really interesting. In the latest Herron Todd White Month in Review, which we’ve got available for you as a complete download. Just look below and you’ll see it. We’ve loaded it to the site. Go and have a look at it. I’ll give you a rundown, state by state, on some of the major issues that you’re going to find inside that report. But I want to focus very much on central Queensland as an indication of just how dramatic the downturn has been in that area. Impacted, I guess, on the back of what’s happened with mining.
Kevin: Joining me to talk about this, Adrian Haks. Adrian is the Director of Valuations Residential for central Queensland for Herron Todd White. Adrian, thanks very much for your time.
Adrian: Thank you, Kevin.
Kevin: I noticed in the report, particularly in relation to Rockhampton, you talked there about renovation, which is the major focus of this report. But you talk about finance for major renovations in that area, we have to go back something like 10 or 15 years to see any improvement in capital growth because of the downturn. That’s pretty dramatic, isn’t it?
Adrian: Yes, it is, it is. And we sort of see that the peak of the residential market was in that late 2008, early 2009. And then it has been on a gradual decline since then. So, yeah, that 10 year period is not many residential homes have seen much growth at all.
Kevin: Now, we talked there about having to go back 10 to 15 years to see any appreciable growth to borrow against, but I guess the same or even a worse impact would be on those who are looking to sell. They’re facing the prospect of a fairly large loss.
Adrian: Yeah, that’s correct. Yeah, that’s correct. Unfortunately, not many people would be seeing any improvement on the sale price of what they paid in that period. So, yeah, unfortunately we have been seeing a little bit of mortgagee in possession situations on the back of that.
Kevin: Is there any indication, Adrian, as to how long it’s going to take to come back to norm, do you think?
Adrian: Well, I think that during the peak it was quite high, the values, and in some cases unaffordable to many people. And on the back of that downturn in the mining and so forth, we lost a lot of employment opportunities and lost a lot of population. Which, as you would probably know, it’s very simple economics with regards to a lot of the real estate and value in real estate. It’s supply and demand. So on the back of new projects in the area, that’s where we can draw more population and employment opportunities and perhaps stabilise, which we think it is sort of stabilising now, and build on that in the near future.
Kevin: Just staying in central Queensland for a moment. Gladstone, is it in the same category as Rockhampton?
Adrian: Yeah. Gladstone, it actually suffered a lot worse than Rockhampton and a lot of other places because they had some fairly major projects underway with the LNG construction, the plant on Curtis Island and so forth. They had a major influx of population and a lot of construction of new dwellings, and a lot of investment by investors, both local and non-local, to take on that opportunity. But as soon as the construction was over, there was all of a sudden an increase in vacancy rates and empty houses, and a dramatic reduction in values over the last few years as a consequence.
Kevin: Yeah. Well, you can certainly get a feel for the impact of that downturn by checking it out. It’s the Herron Todd White Month in Review, and the full download is available for you. I’ve been talking to Adrian Haks, who is Director of Valuations Residential for central Queensland for Herron Todd White. Adrian, thanks for your time.
Adrian: Thank you, Kevin.
Kevin: Interesting to note too a few other highlights from that report. In Canberra they refer particularly to the Mister Fluffy asbestos issue, which we’ve raised in this show in the past. But interesting to see that the demolition or the acquisition of a number of those properties, and the then demolition, has brought a lot more vacant land onto the market in Canberra. With the bonus there being that the councils have allowed much more density into those blocks, so I guess that’s on the upside.
Kevin: Also an extensive coverage in the report in New South Wales about Sydney east, and duplex sites there that are too small for subdivision are being developed under company title. In Victoria, Melbourne’s southwest, many councils there are considering planning changes to reduce minimum lot sizes as well. We’re seeing this quite a lot around Australia. We’re getting a lot more density into some of these capital city locations. Northern territory, Darwin, grants and discounts offer great incentive to purchase and renovate under $500,000. Good news for there.
Kevin: And in Tasmania, higher inner CBD prices are pushing renovation options further away from the city. Once again, not a bad thing at all. But you can get a full coverage by downloading the report, which is available on our site. Now, look for the link just underneath this interview in the commentary, and that is the Herron Todd White Month in Review report. Download it. Quite a large document, but you’ll find it very, very interesting.